Bitcoin (BTC) and most of the major altcoins were sold together with global stock markets and crude oil on November 26th. The news of a new variant of coronavirus discovered in South Africa rocked the markets, which are worrying scientists about its large number of mutations in the spike protein.
The sharp decline has resulted in crypto-crypto liquidations of over $ 750 million over the 24-hour period, but funding rates on the exchanges remain high. This suggests that the sale may not be complete yet.
Daily performance of the cryptocurrency market. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin’s month-end closing for November will most likely not reach Analyst PlanB’s worst-case scenario of $ 98,000. This will be the first failure after the model accurately predicted month-end price levels for August, September and October. However, the creator of the stock-to-flow model believes that the $ 100,000 target for Bitcoin is still valid in this halving cycle.
Is the current decline a delicious Black Friday deal or the beginning of a short-term bear phase? Let’s check out the top 10 cryptocurrency charts to find out.
BTC / USDT
The bulls pushed Bitcoin back above the $ 58,000 mark on November 25, but failed to break the barrier at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($ 59,510). This could have resulted in profit bookings from traders.
BTC / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sale gained momentum after falling below $ 55,317 on Nov 26, and the next stop could be psychological support at $ 50,000.
When the price recovers from these levels, buyers will seek to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they are successful, it suggests that selling pressures may ease.
Alternatively, if the next rebound is off the 20-day EMA, it suggests that sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on rallies. That increases the chance of a break below $ 50,000.
If so, the BTC / USDT pair could experience panic selling that could push the price down to $ 40,000.
ETH / USDT
Ether (ETH) broke above the 20-day EMA ($ 4,336) on November 25, but the upward move proved to be a bull trap as price fell sharply on November 26, falling to the neckline of the developing head and shoulders (H&S) pattern.
ETH / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The cops aggressively defend the cutout. If price bounces off the neckline, buyers will try to overcome the overhead resistance at $ 4,551. This could pave the way for a retest of the all-time high at $ 4,868.
Conversely, a closing price below the cutout will complete the bearish pattern. This could intensify selling and the ETH / USDT pair could fall to the support zone of $ 3,600-3,400. If this zone breaks too, the next stop could be the target at $ 3,047.
BNB / USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) surged above the overhead resistance at $ 605.20 on November 25, but the bulls failed to break the strong hurdle at $ 669.30. This suggests that bears are vigorously defending this level.
BNB / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Failure to break above $ 669.30 may have prompted short-term traders to book profits. This pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA (USD 590) on November 26th. The bears will now seek to lower the BNB / USDT pair to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (USD 539).
A break and close below the 50-day SMA could indicate a trend reversal. Sales could accelerate on a break below $ 510. The pair could then drop to $ 450.
The bulls must push and hold the price above the overhead resistance zone of $ 669.30 to $ 691.80 to signal the resumption of the uptrend.
SOL / USDT
Solana (SOL) rallied from the 50-day SMA (USD 202) on November 25, but fell from the 20-day EMA (USD 216). This suggests a shift in sentiment, from buying on dips to selling on rallies.
SOL / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Selling resumed November 26th and the bears are trying to bring the price below the symmetrical triangle support line. If they keep the price below the triangle, the SOL / USDT pair could fall to $ 153 and then to $ 140.
The falling 20-day EMA and Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 43 show the bears have the upper hand. This negative view will be invalidated if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the resistance line of the triangle.
ADA / USDT
Cardano (ADA) formed an inside-day doji candle pattern on Nov. 25, indicating indecision between bulls and bears. That uncertainty cleared with a break below $ 1.58 on November 26th.
ADA / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The ADA / USDT pair has strong support at $ 1.50. While the falling moving averages indicate an advantage for bears, the RSI in the oversold territory suggests that the selling may have been exaggerated in the short term.
The bulls could attempt a relief rally that is likely to see strong selling on the 20-day EMA ($ 1.85). If the price moves down from this level, the bears will make another attempt to bring the pair below $ 1.50. If successful, the pair could drop to $ 1. The first sign of strength will be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA.
XRP / USDT
Although the bulls have been defending $ 1 support for the past few days, they have failed to push Ripple (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($ 1.08). This indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.
XRP / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Sales accelerated on November 26th and bears pushed the price below $ 1 psychological support. The XRP / USDT pair could now fall to the strong support at $ 0.85. If the price recovers from these levels, the bulls will attempt to push the price above $ 1.
If successful, the pair could try to gradually move towards the overhead resistance at $ 1.24. Conversely, if the price dips from $ 1 to below $ 0.85, the pair could drop to $ 0.70.
DOT / USDT
Polkadot (DOT) bounced off the uptrend line on November 25, but the bulls were unable to hold the higher levels. Sales intensified on November 26 and the price fell below $ 37.53, completing a bearish H&S pattern.
DOT / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The DOT / USDT pair could now drop to $ 32 and later to $ 26 where the bulls could try to halt the decline. On the downside, the breakout level at 38.70 is an important level to watch for.
If the price drops from this level, it suggests that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
Conversely, if the bulls push and hold the price above $ 38.70 it will indicate strong demand at lower levels. A break and a close above $ 43.56 could tip the advantage in favor of the bulls.
Related: BAT price hits new highs after a daily rally of 30% as Basic Attention Token battles the crypto downtrend
DOGE / USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) attempted a recovery rally on November 25, but the long wick on the daily candle shows that bears were selling near the downtrend line.
DOGE / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sell gained momentum on November 26, and the DOGE / USDT pair fell below the immediate support at $ 0.21 and broke below the strong support at $ 0.19. The bulls are currently trying to defend the $ 0.19 level.
If price bounces off current levels, the bears will again be challenging at $ 0.21. If this level turns into resistance, the likelihood of a break below $ 0.19 increases. If so, the pair could fall to the critical support at $ 0.15. The first sign of strength will be a breakout and a close above the 20-day EMA ($ 0.23).
AVAX / USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) rallied from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $ 112.63 on November 25, but the long wick on the candle shows that traders were selling on rallies.
AVAX / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The AVAX / USDT pair turned down on November 26th and has fallen to the 20-day EMA ($ 105). This is an important level to watch out for as traders buy on dips to the 20-day EMA during uptrends. If the price recovers from current levels, the bulls will attempt to push the price down to $ 130.
Conversely, if bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA and the 50% retracement level at $ 102.01, the pair could fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $ 91.39. The deeper the fall, the longer it will take for the next leg of the upward movement to begin.
SHIB / USDT
SHIBA INU (SHIB) fell below strong support at $ 0.000040 on November 24. The bulls tried to push the price back above the level and caught the aggressive bears on November 25, but failed to break the overhead hurdle on the 20-day EMA (0.000046) $.
SHIB / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This suggests that on rallies, traders are selling near the overhead resistance levels. The bears pushed the price back below the $ 0.000040 level on November 26th, increasing the possibility of the correction resuming.
The SHIB / USDT pair could now complete a 100% retracement and hit $ 0.000027. This bearish view will be invalidated if price rises from current levels and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then climb to $ 0.000052.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC Exchange.
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